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Not sure how to use this, but it's interesting. Let me know if you figure out an application.
Videosphere
Insights about the past and present environment, and foresight about the future.
For a glimpse on what the four CEOs think about how to restore the American dream check out their video excerpts below:
- To watch former IBM CEO Lou Gerstner on the state of the U.S. worker click HERE .
- To watch Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld on why Alcoa had to learn to do more with fewer workers click HERE .
- To watch Coca-Cola CEO Muhtar Kent on whether jobs will come back to America click HERE .
- To watch Google CEO Eric Schmidt on the innovation war being fought with other nations click HERE .
And don't forget that this was also the topic of Fareed's first TIME Magazine cover story which you can read HERE.
Watch the podcast HERE .
And you can find the transcript for the entire show HERE.
A physics talk for non-physicists by Michael Baranger
“The twenty-first century is starting with a huge bang. For the person in the street, the bang is about a technical revolution that may eventually dwarf the industrial revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries, having already produced a drastic change in the rules of economics. For the scientifically minded, one aspect of this bang is the complexity revolution, which is changing the focus of research in all scientific disciplines, for instance human biology and medicine. What role does physics, the oldest and simplest science, have to play in this? Being a theoretical physicist to the core, I want to focus on theoretical physics. Is it going to change also?
Twentieth-century theoretical physics came out of the relativistic revolution and the quantum mechanical revolution. It was all about simplicity and continuity (in spite of quantum jumps). Its principal tool was calculus. Its final expression was field theory.
Twenty-first-century theoretical physics is coming out of the chaos revolution. It will be about complexity and its principal tool will be the computer. Its final expression remains to be found. Thermodynamics, as a vital part of theoretical physics, will partake in the transformation.”
The author describes calculus as being limited to smooth functions that can be approximated by a series of straight lines. “For at least 200 years, theoretical science fed on this calculus idea. The mathematicians invented concepts like continuity and analyticity to describe smoothness more precisely. And the discovery of Calculus led to an explosion of further discoveries. The branch of mathematics so constituted, known as Analysis, is not only the richest of all the branches, but also by far the most useful for applications to quantitative science, from physics to engineering, from astronomy to hydrodynamics, from materials science to oceanography. Theoretical scientists became applied mathematicians, and applied mathematicians are people for whom analysis is second nature. Integrals, differential equations, series expansions, integral representations of special functions, etc . . . . , these are the tools that calculus has provided and that are capable of solving an amazing variety of problems in all areas of quantitative knowledge.”
Scientists and engineers accepted this assumption so long that they forgot completely about it. “Yes, the enormous success of calculus is in large part responsible for the decidedly reductionist attitude of most twentieth century science, the belief in absolute control arising from detailed knowledge. Yes, the mathematicians were telling us all along that smooth curves were the exception, not the rule: we did not listen!”
Chaos is the exception that finally broke through. “Chaos is the rediscovery that calculus does not have infinite power. In its widest possible meaning, chaos is the collection of those mathematical truths that have nothing to do with calculus. And this is why it is distasteful to twentieth century physicists.”
Chaos can exist in both time and space. Chaos is space is called a fractal. “There are many possible definitions of the word fractal. A very loose and general definition is this: a fractal is a geometric figure that does not become simpler when you analyze it into smaller and smaller parts. Which implies, of course, that it is not smooth.”
Fractals exist in mathematics, geometry and almost everywhere in nature.
Chaos in time is the result of dynamical systems, a system that is capable of changing its configuration over time. “The signature of time-chaos is something called “sensitivity to initial conditions”.”
“Sensitivity to initial conditions is the death of reductionism. It says that any small uncertainty that may exist in the initial conditions will grow exponentially with time, and eventually (very soon, in most cases) it will become so large that we will lose all useful knowledge of the state of the system. Even if we know the state of the system very precisely now, we cannot predict the future trajectory forever. We can do it for a little while, but the error grows exponentially and we have to give up at some point.”
Time and space chaos are closely related. “Every chaotic dynamical system is a fractal-manufacturing machine. Conversely, every fractal can be seen as the possible result of the prolonged action of time-chaos.”
Chaos can exist for very simple systems and is always nonlinear.
“At the present time, the notion of complex system is not precisely delineated yet. This is normal. As people work on complex systems more and more, they will gain better understanding of their defining properties. Now, however, the idea is somewhat fuzzy and it differs from author to author. But there is fairly complete agreement that the “ideal” complex systems, those which we would like most to understand, are the biological ones, and especially the systems having to do with people: our bodies, our groupings, our society, our culture. Lacking a precise definition, we can try to convey the meaning of complexity by enumerating what seem to be the most typical properties. Some of these properties are shared by many non-biological systems as well.”
I find the author’s discussion on entropy unsatisfactory and unconvincing. After several pages of proof and discussion, he writes, “The conclusion is that our dimensionless entropy, which measures our lack of knowledge, is a purely subjective quantity. It has nothing to do with the fundamental laws of particles and their interactions. It has to do with the fact that chaos messes up things; that situations that were initially simple and easy to know in detail, will become eventually so complicated, thanks to chaos, that we are forced to give up trying to know them.”
Having learned about entropy from thermodynamics and being able to derive the concept of entropy from simple considerations of the Carnot Cycle, it’s a real property to me. One implication of thermodynamic entropy is the impossibility of perpetual motion. Energy gets dissipated in the form of heat. Perhaps I’m not knowledgeable enough to see the difference between thermodynamic entropy and information entropy. Perhaps I still have more to learn, or unlearn…
Chaos, Complexity and Entropy: A physics talk for non-physicists, Michael Baranger, MIT and NECSI, MIT-CTP-3112
Yaneer Bar-Yam writes in the book’s Preface: “In recent years the rapidly changing world around us has been raising concerns about the ability of people to cope with change. Future Shock, The Ingenuity Gap, and other books describe the difficulty of people living in our complex world. Complexity may seem overwhelming but it is not a bad thing. The complexity of the world is a mirror reflection of ourselves working together to make the world work. We, together, are becoming increasingly complex. The reason we can do this is that we work together in increasingly effective ways. We are connected to each other in ways that allow us to respond as teams and organizations. This enables us to do things we would not be able to do by ourselves, not just in terms of amount of effort but in terms of complexity. Complex tasks require complex organizations. When we are part of a complex team we find the world a remarkably comfortable place, because we can act effectively while being protected from the complexity of the world. This feeling is like the experience of a cell in a body, protected from the environment, and contributing to the organism function. Today civilization is the organism we are part of. We are in the midst of a remarkable transition from the individual to the group, organization, and even to global civilization as a functioning unit. While this is a mind bending transition, it is a transition of opportunity for creating a world that works for everybody, on the global level and on the level of each individual.”
Later, he continues this train of thought: “Today we often describe the world around us as highly complex. Complexity manifests in everything from individual relationships to corporate challenges to concerns about the human condition and global welfare. As a global community, we are in the middle of a transition from the industrial to the information age, and this transformation is reflected and rereflected in everything around us. The amount of information that is flowing and the rate of change of society are both aspects of the growing complexity of our existence. As individuals, we have a hard time coping with all the information and change. In some sense more importantly, our society is also having difficulty coping with its own changes.
Our economic and social institutions, that we rely upon at critical times of our lives, including the health and education systems, are changing, not always gracefully, to meet the new challenges. Professional activities, from corporate management to systems engineering, require new approaches, insights and skills. Global concerns, such as environmental destruction and poverty - in developed and undeveloped nations - are becoming more pressing as these changes take place.
Despite major efforts to identify the solutions to these problems, they are often obscure and hidden from us. Even when we think we are making progress, the solutions we think of today may cause us more problems tomorrow. This is because complex problems do not lend themselves to easy solutions. Any action may have hidden effects that cause matters to become worse and the whole strategy we are using may be moving things in the wrong direction. Complex problems are the problems that persist-the problems that bounce back and continue to haunt us. People often go through a series of stages in dealing with such problems-from believing they are beyond hope, to galvanizing collective efforts of many people and dollars to address the problem, to despair, retreat, and rationalization. The progress made seems miniscule compared to the effort and resources expended. Even with all of the modern technological advances, it is easy to become pessimistic about the world today. There is hope, however, in the recognition that people can solve very complex problems when they work together effectively. Unfortunately, this is generally not how we respond when there are problems. We don't always realize the ability that we have when we work together. We tend to assign blame or responsibility to one individual.”
The author summarizes book: “Developing the ability to use a complex systems perspective requires new patterns of thinking. In the first section of this book some of the key complex systems ideas are described. These ideas -like emergence and interdependence-have to do with relationships between parts of a system and how these relationships lead to the behavior of the system. After all, society works because of how people interact with and relate to each other, not how each person acts separately. The results of the interactions between people are patterns of behavior. We will look at how patterns can arise from interactions without someone putting the parts of the pattern in place by telling each person what to do. Using our understanding of how neurons interact in the brain, we will show how the pattern of behavior can be made to serve a purpose. We will find that the type of pattern that arises can be related to how the system is organized - who can interact with whom. We will look more generally at the set of things a system can do, and how this set of actions is related to how it is organized. Some organizations are good at doing complex tasks, and some are not. Perhaps not surprisingly, centrally controlled or hierarchical organizations are not capable of highly complex tasks. This means that we have to figure out how to make distributed/networked organizations if we want to solve complex problems. Finally, we learn about evolution, how really complex systems (including distributed/networked organizations) can form and be effective without being planned (which is crucial because planning them doesn't work!). Counter to how evolution is usually discussed, it is not just about competition, it is always about both competition and cooperation. Competition and cooperation work together at different levels of organization, just as in team sports where players learn to cooperate because of team competition. Making an effective organization is making a successful team.”
He applies these principles to the following systems as examples:
My understanding of his work, acquired only from reading this book, leads me to believe that what he is talking about are complicated or unorganized complex systems. I don’t believe that his approaches will work well for many structured complex systems. He mentions these only once and seems to dismiss their difficulties without explaining how. “Before we can explain how system problems arise and can be fixed, we have to understand something about how systems work. This is where science can help. For many years there has been a sense that chaos and complexity, promising new areas of scientific inquiry, have something fundamental to tell us about the world in which we live. James Gleick's classic book Chaos: Making a New Science (1987) and many other books in later years have raised popular awareness of these directions of research. Much of the focus has been on recognizing the intrinsic unpredictability of nature, and-by extension-of society. However, beyond the fascinating applications to turbulence, meteorology, and other complex problems in the natural world, complex systems science has more to tell us about the world-including human beings and their interactions-than just that it is unpredictable.”
There are two concepts in this book that I have found very helpful to my thinking:
Bar-Yam summarizes his book this way: “To solve complex problems we must create effective complex organizations. The underlying challenge of this book is the question: How do we create organizations that are capable of being more complex than a single individual? Living with complexity is challenging, but we can and should clearly understand the nature of how it can be done, both for individuals and organizations. The complexity of each individual or organization must match the complexity of the task each is to perform. When we think about a highly complex problem, we are generally thinking about tasks that are more complex than a single individual can understand. Otherwise, complexity is not the main issue in solving it. If a problem is more complex than a single individual, the only way to solve it is to have a group of people-organized appropriately - solve it together. When an organization is highly complex it can only function by making sure that each individual does not have to face the complexity of the task of the organization as a whole. Otherwise failure will occur most of the time. This statement follows quite logically from the recognition of complexity in problems we are facing.
Our experience with organizing people is for large-scale problems that are not very complex. In this case the need for many people arises because many individuals must do the same thing to achieve a large impact. In this old reason for organizing people, a hierarchy works because it is designed to amplify what a single person knows and wants to do. However, hierarchies (and many modifications of them) cannot perform complex tasks or solve complex problems. Breaking up (subdividing) a complex task is not like breaking up a large scale task.
The challenge of solving complex problems thus requires us to understand how to organize people for collective and complex behavior. First, however, we have to give up the idea of centralizing, controlling, coordinating and planning in a conventional way. Such efforts are the first response of almost everybody today because of the effectiveness of this approach in the past. Instead, we need to be able to characterize the problem in order to identify the structure of the organization that can solve it, and then allow the processes of that organization to act. The internal processes of that organization can use the best of our planning and analysis tools. Still, ultimately, we must allow experimentation and evolutionary processes to guide us. By establishing a rapid learning process that affects individuals, teams and organizations, we can extend the reach of organizations, allowing them to solve highly complex problems.
I appreciate that I am only one human being and my understanding of the world is consequently quite bounded. Still, it is reasonable to hope that some of the concepts discussed here may be of use to you. Others will complement or contradict me as necessary.
The basic concepts that I hope to have contributed an appreciation for are as follows:
Slightly less apparent but no less important are the recognition and appreciation of:
Finally, along with the recognition of complex problems that we continue to face in this world, we have also pointed out the increasing complexity of society. This increasing complexity implies great capabilities. Indeed, it suggests that we, together, are becoming remarkably effective at solving complex problems in a complex world.”
Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, Yaneer Bar-Yam, NECSI Knowledge Press, 2004, 306pp