Be Wary of Polling Now

Be wary of polling in this environment. "In our NBC-Marist poll of Florida, Romney leads with landline respondents, 48%-45%. But Obama leads among cell phone respondents, 57%-34%. And in Virginia, Romney’s up one among landline folks, 47%-46%, while Obama is up 54%-36% with cell users." http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/24/11859035-first-thoughts-mr-48

And this is just one variable. In addition, there's an overall issue with statistical polling in this environment. It's based on a model that assumes that there are no connections between those being polled. With the Internet and the 24 hr, 7 day cable news, the population is too volatile. And, it doesn't account for emergent behavior.

Where Have You Gone, Bell Labs?

BusinessWeek
From kurzweil.net

The root of the current lack of new, high-quality job creation is the massive scaling back of science and engineering research, which has in the past made enormous contributions to science, technology, and the economy, including the creation of millions of high-paying jobs, says management consultant Adrian Slywotzky.

Here's what's needed to get that model back on track, he suggests:

• Clear national goals in two or three key areas, such as carbon-free energy and preventive medicine.

• Government commitment of $10 billion a year above and beyond spending for national agencies to jump-start new industrial research labs.

• Government tax credits for corporations that commit to spending 5% to 10% (or more) of R&D on basic research.

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I have some mixed feeling about this article. Most of my life I would have agreed strongly with the sentiments of the author. I am a graduate of 30 years with IBM as a technologist, technology manager, internal entrepreneur and cultural change agent. And, now 20 years as a futurist and consultant. My instinctive reaction would have been "right on". But, now I'm not sure.

For years we have worshiped at the altar of economic value created for the stockholder. In business this means the rationalization of all its operations to achieving that goal. And, with that, and globalization, comes the stockholder's short term perspective. Investment in research with uncertain and long term payback gets reduced or cut off.

Unfortunately we've adopted a parallel belief system in education. So, we can't depend upon our universities to provide the research either. And, as we continue to inflict more measurements on education all the way down through public schools, we emphasize short term payback.

The change described in the article is either cyclical or its structural. If it's cyclical, then all we have to is wait for the economic flowering when big companies are awash in profits, and in their wisdom, they will invest these profits in research for the future.

If the change is structural, then "big research" is gone forever. There are numerous indications in many different industries that the trends of decentralization, disintemediation, openness and fragmentation are real and structural. If that is so, then what would research look like? How would it work? What kind of research could be done in a fragmented, disintermediated, open and decentralized way?

I don't know. And, I've not heard from anyone that does know.

But, isn't time that we begin to look at this issue head on. If not, and someone else does, we'll really suffer economically in the future.

It's like Morgan Freeman's character said in The Shawshank Redemption, "Get busy living, or get busy dying."

We Need Change

A look at the present status and future of market research.

We need change

View more presentations from Helge Tennø.

More from Helge Tenno

Substitution Analysis of Market/Marketing Research Technology Methods and Media

Substitution Analysis of Market/Marketing Research Methods and Media

View more presentations from Paul Schumann.

Technological Substitution In Market/Marketing Research

Substitution analysis is a well accepted method of technological forecasting in use for 36 years. In these analyses, the Fisher-Pry model was used. The Fisher-Pry model predicts characteristics loosely analogous to those of biological system growth. It results in an S-curve (more formally, sigmoidal curve) familiar to many because the curve is in the shape of an S. These natural growth processes share the properties of relatively slow early change, followed by steep growth, then a turnover as size asymptotically approaches a limit. The relationship between the fraction of total market taken by the new technology, f, is often given as:

f = 1 /(1 + c exp(-bt))

where t is time, and c and b are empirically determined coefficients.

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Types of Market Research and a Research Taxonomy

There are four distinctly different types of market research. Each has it's own objectives and some have unique methods. In looking at the total research industry and it's future, the standard perspective of quantitative and qualitative doesn't really help very much. The view must be from the user's perspective and be related to the purpose, not the method.


Also, a new taxonomy for research tools and technologies is needed. With many new technologies being devloped, a broader perspective is needed. I propose one based on two dimensions - medium and methods.

Creativity and Market Research

Creativity is another application for research. The creative process is usually shown in four steps:

1. Saturation
2. Incubation
3. Ideation
4. Evaluation

In the saturation stage, an individual or a group is given a lot of information about the subject or problem. Research techniques provide this information.

In the incubation stage individuals are left alone to think about the problem or subject. For groups, they can both think about the problem or subject and talk about it with each other. The social technologies can be used for this.

In the ideation stage the individual or group are encouraged to suggest as many ideas as possible within a time frame. For groups, it is expected that the ideas will build on each other. A ‘focus group” type of environment is often used.

In the evaluations stage, there are usually three subtasks – explanation and expansion of the ideas, establishing criteria for evaluation and evaluation. Surveys are most often used for this stage, but the newer predictive market approaches show some promise.

The Evolution of Market, Marketing and Customer Research

According to IDC, the digital universe in 2007 was 2.25 x 10^21 bits (281 exabytes or 281 billion gigabytes). By 2011, the digital universe will be 10 times the size it was in 2006. The enterprise share of the digital universe is widely skewed by industry, having little relationship to GDP or IT spending. The finance industry, for instance, accounts for almost 20% of worldwide IT spending but only 6% of the digital universe. Meanwhile, media, entertainment, and communications industries will account for 10 times their share of the digital universe in 2011 as their share of worldwide gross economic output.

One area driving this exponential growth of information is content creation. Content is increasing created originally in digital format. In addition we are rapidly converting analog content into digital information. Moreover, a phenomena called “mashup” is becoming widespread. Wikipedia defines a digital mashup as “a digital media file containing any or all of text, graphics, audio, video, and animation, which recombines and modifies existing digital works to create a derivative work.” This has always been going on in a wide range of fields from science to art, but in digital form, it is exploding, creating even more digital information.

Tidwit describes digital content as “quite simply any form of data or information in digital form (i.e. an electronic file) rather than physical form. Examples of digital content can be anything from a simple poem to photos, graphic art, research papers, articles, reports, statistical databases, business plans, engineering designs, e-books, multimedia (music and movies), etc. In other words, digital content is any type of content that happens to be in bits and bytes.” And, in my diagram below, content include the development of platforms, environments and other tools that enable users to create more content.

Content is created by an enterprise. The enterprise can be an individual or a multinational corporation. In the past, the enterprise created content and interacted with the content in order to improve it. The content was developed for a medium, when completed it was published. It was then distributed and delivered via a device to multiple people. In order to determine the number of potential users, user needs for the content or how best to market it, market or marketing research was conducted. Or, if you wished to know how the content was being used, what people thought about it, or what improvements were needed, customer research was performed. However, that research was conducted outside the development - distribution system.

Today’s process is similar to the past except that now content is often created for multiple media and devices. For example, a song is performed for live audiences, recorded on a CD, performed in a DVD, and downloaded online as an mp3. For companies like Disney you can include movies, Broadway shows and then park rides. Devices range from movie theaters to telephones.

Yesterday’s process was developed before digital media. Today’s process includes the capabilities of web 1.0. Yesterday’s and today’s process is enterprise centric. However, with the development of web 2.0, the process begins to shift from enterprise centric to content centric. (See Web 2.0 & Social Media for More information on web 1.0 & web 2.0 )

With web 2.0, the process of creating and distributing content can be much more interactive. Market, marketing and customer research is embedded in the process because the users can feedback information (actively or passively through sensors) at any part of the process and the enterprise can query, or collect data, at all stages of the process (with proper user knowledge and concurrence). However, the process is still enterprise centric.

In the future, as web 2.0 tools are developed and diffused, another significant shift occurs, as the process becomes content centric. Multiple enterprises and users collaborate through multiple devices and media to create content. This step short circuits the enter concept of market, marketing and customer research as users are partners, and integrated into the entire process.

The latter stages of the development of the process accelerates innovation by closing the loop between needs and implementation. It also fosters additional innovation as content becomes more easily “mashable”. Innovation diffusion accelerates.

This process is applicable to digital content where digital media and devices exist broadly. It is most applicable to incremental and distinct innovation. It is probably not useful for breakthrough innovation. At least in the past using the enterprise centric model, a lot of dat exists indicating that users can’t easily define the needs for breakthrough innovations. However, we have no data on the content centric process for breakthrough innovations. (See Innovate! for more information on incremental, distinctive and breakthough innovation. )

It's your Move

A review of the past and present of market research, and a look into its future. The market research profession is undergoing disruptive innovation.

It\'s Your Move

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The Past and Future of Marketing Research

A video describing the past and a potential future scenario for the development of marketing research. This was created as an experiment in the use of video tools available on the desktop to create a plausible scenario of the future for discussion.