Thursday, May 31, 2012

Be Wary of Polling Now

Be wary of polling in this environment. "In our NBC-Marist poll of Florida, Romney leads with landline respondents, 48%-45%. But Obama leads among cell phone respondents, 57%-34%. And in Virginia, Romney’s up one among landline folks, 47%-46%, while Obama is up 54%-36% with cell users."

And this is just one variable. In addition, there's an overall issue with statistical polling in this environment. It's based on a model that assumes that there are no connections between those being polled. With the Internet and the 24 hr, 7 day cable news, the population is too volatile. And, it doesn't account for emergent behavior.