Sunday, May 10, 2009

A Moore's Law for Energy?

The Foresight Institute

Earlier this week I was at the premiere of Transcendent Man, a biographical overview of Ray Kurzweil’s views on the coming Singularity. Kurzweil’s main argument is that the power of the exponential in technology is major, systemic, and underappreciated.

The specific item of interest in this post is Kurzweil’s claim, repeated in the movie, that solar energy is on a Moore’s Law-like curve with a power/$ doubling time of two years:

The crossover of the tipping point where solar energy will be less expensive than fossil fuels in almost every situation is within five years.

This DOE graph says basically the same thing:


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