Foresight in the Time of Simplcity, Complexity and Chaos

We live and work in an environment laced with complex systems. While there are many definitions of complexity, some characteristics of complex systems of interest to us most, like the ones creating our present environment, are:

* Behavior is sensitive to initial conditions
* Cause and effect and not related
* Unpredictability
* Nonreversible
* Will either result in chaos or criticality

Here the term chaos is used in the same way as it is in the Hesiod trinity – chaos, gaia, eros – not randomness but the source of creation.

Economies, markets, and technological development have become complex systems. And, almost all of the systems in nature are complex systems, including people. An understanding of complexity is vital to organizations and individuals.

What does foresight mean in today's environment? How do manage differently if the environment is simple, complex or chaotic? Will we have to change the way we look at everything?

These and other questions were answered by Paul Schumann's provocative discussion as he covers:

* Foresight
* 1, 2, A Few, Many
* Chaos, Gaia, Eros
* Simplicity, Complexity, Emergence & Fractals
* Examples of Emergence & Complexity
* Massively Parallel vs. Mathematical Modeling
* Characteristics: Simple and Complex
* Strategy
* Foresight redux

Recording of Webinar

Transcript of Chat Room


Slides from Webinar

Foresight in the Time of Simplicity, Complexity and Chaos

View more presentations from Paul Schumann.

Emergence

Double Pendulum (cyclical and chaotic motion)

Immortal (fractal)

Dendrite of the Mandlebrot Set (fractal)


Paul Schumann is a futurist and an innovation consultant. He is the president and co-founder of Glocal Vantage Inc. (GVI)

He has been a technologist and technology manager in the semiconductor industry (IBM), internal entrepreneur (IBM), cultural change agent (IBM), and consultant (Technology Futures and Glocal Vantage). With 49 years of professional experience, Paul is still excited about learning, and sharing what he is learning.

He is the founder, past president, and member of the board of the Central Texas Chapter of the World Future Society. Paul is a member of the advisory boards of the Marketing Research Association and ACC's Center for Community-based and Nonprofit Organizations. He is also involved with Texas Forums and Extreme Democracy. He is the creator and director of the Insights – Intelligence – Innovation Collaborative (In3C).

Paul is a fan of web 2.0 technologies and has applied them to his own work, and to create market intelligence systems for clients. He is excited to see their application in democracy. His interests also include media ecology and complexity.